As a political scientist I am expected to describe the political world, analyze it, and explain it. When people discover who I am, some mistakenly think my credentials confer upon me a superior knowledge of the divine political plan. They may ask me such questions as who will win the election, will "he" be impeached, or will "she" run? In such situations, I can do one of three things: give a self-assured prediction glowing in the faith of superior wisdom conferred by the unsuspecting questioner, equivocate my answer by covering all logical bases, or just refuse to make a prediction admitting that my training did not include prognostication. We can analyze trends and theorize based on proven facts, but we are aware of the limits of science in explaining human behavior. Santayana did not get it completely right; history rarely repeats itself exactly. Every now and then it is the prerogative of a middle aged political scientist to push the envelope and live dangerously. I shall attempt to explain why I think Israel and the Jewish People are entering the dawn of an exciting, creative, and positive new era at the beginning of a new millennium.

TWO JUDAISMS

Throughout the history of the modern State of Israel most of its Jewish population has been divided between two Judaisms, orthodox Judaism and what I refer to as secular Judaism. Orthodoxy has had variant forms that include the Ashkenazim with their ritual roots in Europe and the Sephardim with their roots in the muslim Middle East, North Africa, Near East, and Spain. The Haredim, or ultra orthodox black hatters largely isolate themselves from the rest of the population. Other orthodox participate in various degrees in the secular life of the country. These include the modern orthodox, many wearing knit kippot who try to maintain their orthodox beliefs while participating in the larger society. They serve in the military and participate in the political and economic life of the country. Recently a moderate group of modern orthodox from the National Religious Party has organized into Meimad, a splinter group that is promoting a more liberal approach to religious pluralism and a more clear cut division between religion and the state. They have formed a coalition with the Labor Party and some Sephardi leaders such as David Levy in preparation for the upcoming elections. While more moderate orthodox are just beginning to make their presence felt, more mainstream orthodox and ultra orthodox have historically dominated Israeli religious society.

Because of agreements made with the Ben Gurion government at the beginnings of statehood, orthodox Judaism has been the de facto state religious denomination. It has consequently dominated and monopolized religious life of the society. The State has provided funds to Religious Councils in local communities that distribute the moneys to orthodox schools, yeshivot, and social programs. Public transportation and business establishments have been severely curtailed on shabbat. In life cycle events that require state sanction, the orthodox have been given final control in marriage, divorce, burial and conversion.

Another Judaism with its parallel to the Jewish community in the United States that I refer to as secular Judaism numerically dominates the population of both societies. In Israel they constitute around seventy percent of the population. While there are degrees of secularity, these Jews tend to view their identity as being bound by a particular historic genealogy, family ties, and in Israel in particular, by a unique Israelization of its culture. Most never set foot in a synagogue, know very little about religious practices, and have coopted some religious rituals and holidays and imbued them with a secular character.

There has been continual tension between the two groups as seen in orthodox attempts to increase their religious influence on the whole society. This has been manifested in clashes over attempts to close down streets on shabbat, the posting of sexually suggestive posters at bus stops, exemptions from military service for some Haredim who are yeshivot students, restrictions on public transportation on shabbat, and regulating who can be buried in Jewish cemeteries. Generally the secular population has been able to ignore or at least tolerate the orthodox intrusion into their lives, particularly in the regulating of life cycle events. This has conferred a certain legitimacy on orthodoxy that has been viewed by the secularists as the authentic religious Judaism linking them to their grandparents and to Jewish history.

Two significant things changed this relationship. The Benjamin Netanyahu government needed the increasingly politicized Haredim and the fervently orthodox Agudat Yisroel Party to form and support his government. Through the Shas political party that represents the Sephardi community, the ultra orthodox extracted demands from the government for greater religious control over Israeli life. At this time the embryonic Israeli Progressive (Reform) and Masorti (Conservative) movements supported by their counterparts in the United States, increasingly challenged the domination of orthodoxy. Led by Rabbis Uri Regev, also a lawyer, and Richard Hirsh, head of the Progressive movement and other leaders including those of the Masorti movement, they engaged in a new strategy of challenging the orthodox monopoly in court. In the last year they have had stunning success with decisions by the Supreme Court led by Chief Justice Aharon Barak. These included the acceptance of non-orthodox conversions and the inclusion of non-orthodox on Religious councils.

In a significant strategic blunder made by the increasingly threatened orthodox movement led by the Haredim and the Chief Rabbis, they challenged the very legitimacy of the Supreme Court. The secular Israeli society has always been proud of the political independence of its Supreme court, viewing it as the ultimate defender of democratic ideals and the law especially since Israel has no formal written constitution. It has been viewed as the safety net guarding against abusive intrusions by corrupt and overreaching politicians, political parties, and the religious establishment.

The attempts by various orthodox groups to disembowel the authority of the Supreme Court galvanized the secular establishment and even some modern orthodox intellectuals to call for a strict separation of religion and the state. Secular literary figures such as Amos Oz and A.B. Yehoshua called on secular Jews to join alternative Jewish religious denominations. This has great significance for the future Jewish character of the state and as a consequence, for the survival of world Jewry. While one should not expect secular Israelis to become practicing Reform or Conservative Jews overnight, by their viewing these two streams of Judaism as legitimate alternatives to orthodoxy, they are incorporating the legitimacy into their cultural concept of Israelization. These movements will steadily become more attractive to their children’s and grandchildren’s generation. As the Progressive and Masorti movements become increasingly part of the mainstream of Israeli life, I believe they will contribute to a revitalization of the cultural and spiritual life of the nation and will also spur a renaissance of Judaic scholarship emanating from Israel. Orthodox intellectuals will have a role in revitalizing orthodoxy to be more flexible and accepting of the modern imperatives of a newly emerging Israeli society in the twenty- first century. The Progressive, Masorti, and liberal modern orthodox will develop a Judaism that will incorporate elements of an emerging Israeli culture and will not be copies of their American counterparts.

The effect and influence this will have on American Jewry will be incalculable. I believe the sharing of belief in Judaism as a religion is the main link connecting Jews throughout the world. As Israel continues to develop its culture, it will be difficult for American Jews to relate to a country just because we share an ancestral history. For an American Jew, it is difficult enough to relate to an Israel without lox and bagels, corned beef on rye, Mogen David wine, and Jewish guilt. Sharing a history and genealogy that has been driven by an attempt to preserve a unique set of religious beliefs has not only defined them with the rest of the world, but connected their fellow Jews in different lands with a sense of peoplehood.

The dwindling population of American Jewry is a consequence of intermarriage, greater acceptance in American society, and perhaps most important, I believe, a decrease in involvement in Jewish religious life. The dwindling American Jewish population will proportionately see an increase in religiosity in its numbers. Some optimistically believe there will be a Jewish renaissance in America. I maintain that a revitalization of religious alternatives in Israel which Americans can relate will draw American and Israeli Jewry closer together and will cross pollinate the growth of religiosity in both populations. An important question that can be asked is whether this cross pollination will help stem the tide of American Jewish assimilation. At the very least, those who choose to remain Jewish will be stimulated by Judaism and Jewish ideas emanating from Israel.

PEACE—ITS MANY FACES

Peace is like justice, freedom and equality. Everyone knows what it means but it is hard to be precise. It is heavily nuanced. In international politics, it is the normal non-warring condition of a nation. Sociologically it represents freedom from disorder normal in a community. Shalom in Hebrew means hello, goodbye, and peace. In Arabic salaam means peace be with you and obeisance. Shalom Aleichem and Salaam Alekum mean peace be to this house; go in peace.

What do we mean by our yearning for peace in the Middle East between Jews and Arabs? If we mean no nations are at war (not a technical state of war but actual combat), then peace already exists, a condition to which few would agree. Is there peace when nations are pacific but when periodic acts of terrorism by self-appointed groups sometimes supported by rogue client states are disruptive to a society? Can there be peace when one nation politically and militarily dominates people under its control? Such domination invariably results in the fostering of a climate of resentment that continually festers and can potentially lead to an explosive reaction? Can peace exist between antagonistic cultures historically marked by differing religious ways of life, political systems, and great economic disparity? In other words, is a reasonable peace possible; one that includes a more normal harmonious relationship, both political and economic, resulting in mutual advantages in both Arab and Israeli houses? I believe the answer is yes, a reasonable peace between Arabs, particularly the Palestinians, is not only possible but quite probable within the next decade. Time tables are always difficult to project, particularly in an area of conflict such as the Middle East where progress and retrogression are as unpredictable as the shifting sands of its deserts.

The momentum of recent history points toward an eventual accommodation on several fronts including an eventual Palestinian state and regional economic alliances. The main watersheds in this process began with the Camp David Accords, the expulsion of the Palestinian leadership from Lebanon, and the Intifada. The Camp David Accords started the incremental process toward the road to peace by creating the precedent of a major Arab state, Egypt, legitimating Israel’s sovereignty. The expulsion of the Palestinian leadership from Lebanon, many years after they were expelled from Jordan, robbed them of an effective front line base in which to direct their efforts to destabilize Israel. With the end of the cold war and the cessation of significant Soviet aid to their client Arab states, the die was cast for the eventual Oslo and Wye Accords. The often bloody encounter between armed Israeli soldiers and stone throwing Palestinian youth during the Intifada resulted in the lowest and most corrupting moments in the history of the Israeli Defense Forces. Morale suffered in a military not trained in repelling civilian insurrection. The conscience of the Israeli public was exposed when the comparison was made between a dominant Israeli occupier suppressing an indigenous population with the role reversal of the historical Jewish experience as the repressed minority. This marked the beginning of a transformation of the Israeli public toward the arduous path towards peace.

I do not know what the eventual boundaries will be for a Palestinian State, or what will be the status of Jerusalem and the Jewish settlements on the West Bank. However, I believe that these seemingly intractable stumbling blocks can be dealt with through careful diplomacy designed to finesse the ever present minefield of emotional sensitivities. It is my educated guess that the issues of Jerusalem and the Palestinian State and the West Bank Jewish settlements will be linked together. Jerusalem will remain the capital of, and under the sovereignty of, Israel. Some Arab neighborhoods and the area of the Mosque of Aksfa will be governed by the Palestinian State. A large number of Jewish settlements will remain under the sovereignty of the Palestinian State but will be under the military protection of Israel. Creating legal fiction is one of the tools of diplomacy.

I cannot foresee a serious threat to Israel from a Palestinian State. With a highly educated and skilled population and a modern and vibrant economy, Israel will remain in the foreseeable future, THE dominant force in the region. The main preoccupation of a new Palestinian State would be the very difficult task of nation building. This would include the establishment of a stable governing mechanism that could provide enough control and stability for the new state to develop and grow. Having their own state, and the inevitable preoccupation in confronting their economic, political, and social problems will contribute to the de-radicalization of the Palestinian leadership and population. Poverty and lack of meaningful jobs for the educated younger population will continue to foment radical groups bent on terrorism. The viability of a Palestinian State will increasingly become tied to regional economic cooperation and partnership with Israel. In the long run, that will continue to help promote a more stable and less radicalized Palestinian population. This will be strengthened by increasing economic ties between Israel and Egypt, Jordan, and maybe even Lebanon.

To some this may all seem to be a pipe dream, to others, a visionary scenario. In either case, Menachem Begin once said that occupying Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) with settlements will create facts. I believe that past events are part of an incremental process that will result in a significant peace whether or not it takes the shape that I have envisioned. There will undoubtedly be beginnings and tortuous stalls in a process filled with acrimony and compromise, but the inevitable ultimate direction will be one towards more, not less stability between Israel and its Arab neighbors.

THE ECONOMY—THE QUIET REVOLUTION

Perhaps the least publicized change in Israeli society has been a remaking of the economy. Israeli society is undergoing a fundamental transition from collectivism to individualism. The socialistic collective ideal of Israel’s European founders emphasizing the worker’s roots in the land has been increasingly challenged by the rapidly changing technological society that encourages creative individualism. The emergence of Israeli individualism with the concomitant decline of collectivism can be found in the Israeli Defense Forces that have long relied on the ranks of kibbutzniks for their leadership. But the kibbutz movement has been in decline. More and more kibbutz parents live with their children instead of living separately from them. Problems in the military with discipline, morale, and drug usage are a consequence of an increasingly urbanized modern society. This transition can also be seen in the incessant drive toward westernization. The decline of idealism has seen the rise of intense competitive materialism. This has resulted in a makeover of the economy.

The Israeli economy is vibrant, expansionary, and riding the crest of a boom cycle. Israel is in the forefront of the technological revolution. It has a high tech arms industry as well as a scientific and medical research establishment. It is also riding the wave of the information highway boon. The people of the book are rapidly becoming the people of the net. Israel is a leader in software development, internet innovations, and communications systems. Small computer companies are part of an expanding cottage industry and provide a good fit with the transformation toward individualism. Unfortunately the down side is that Israel is a leader in computer hacking and virus development.

The average annual Israeli family income is $17,000. It not only is the highest in the Middle East but also rivals some European countries. The economy has been greatly impacted by the highly educated, skilled, and cultured Russian olim. They have provided the necessary skills to fuel the economic boom, particularly in scientific and military research, computer technology, and in cultural pursuits. However, there are three downsides to the economy. There are not enough highly skilled positions to employ the talents of all the Russians. While the Sephardi Jews are being increasingly integrated into the economy, there is still a huge economic gap between them and the more affluent Ashkenazim. This is particularly true with the Ethiopian Jewish community. And finally, the income level of the average Israeli does not match their expanding western lifestyle. Most Israelis live on credit and loans, far beyond their earning power. This is encouraged by banks and industry. Many Israelis work two or three jobs to try to make ends meet. When the expansionary boom period ends, the economy will be like a stack of cards, toppling down and creating dislocation and much hardship.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s most significant legacy as Prime Minister will be his encouragement to move to a more private free market economy. Yet in times of general economic stress, how much of a collective safety net will be available to aid the population? Clearly, this transformation to a more individualistic society is not easy. There will be many bumps in the road and there is need for much fine tuning. But Israel’s high tech industries and skilled work force fit in well with the economic direction of the global economy in the twenty- first century. The peace process has opened up the global economy to Israel, and its economic leadership role will be enhanced by future regional economic ties with their Arab neighbors once a final agreement is reached with the Palestinians.

PROBLEMS ON THE HORIZON AND PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE

Israel has many problems to confront as it enters the next phase of its existence. Some of these include developing a more solid economic base fostered by a spirit of individual responsibility together with communal concerns. Living a life based on credit should be discouraged. There must be greater economic equalization with the Sephardi community. The weak holdovers of a highly centralized and over- bureaucratized society must be seriously addressed. They include an inefficient and mixed quality of health care, an uneven public educational system, and better housing for the working class. The high cost of living must be reigned in and it must better reflect the income levels of the population.

The political stability of surrounding Arab states is problematic. All of these Arab states are dictatorships and their economies are weak. Authoritarian societies reflect their leadership. It is questionable if the new King of Jordan can continue the stability that his father provided. One day Syria will have new leadership, as it current dictator, Hafez Assad, is old and sick. Sadaam Hussein of Iraq leads a precarious existence. When President Mubarek leaves office, what will Egypt be like as it confronts its tremendous poverty, its unstable economy, and its internal threat from the Moslem Brotherhood? Will Lebanon again break into factional civil war? Will Moslem fundamentalism destabilize those states during the transition to new leadership? Will whoever follows Arafat be able to hold together the many Palestinian factions and contain or neutralize the various terrorist groups? Finally, the most explosive external issue Israel must confront is the shortage of water in the area. Regional cooperation in the sharing, management, and distribution of that increasingly limited resource is a key to Israel’s successful peaceful relations with its Arab neighbors.

Yet overall, the prospects of a flourishing Israeli society are good. Now that external threats to its society have been minimalized, Israel is beginning to confront its long festering social and cultural problems. Israel is a society of diverse subcultures. The key to successful Israeli nation building is to incorporate cultural and religious diversity within a framework of a larger and more encompassing Israeli culture. Economic and social disparity must be lessened. A return to religiosity by a large segment of its population must be the glue cementing a viable Israeli society in search of itself. Religious pluralism is the key to that search.

An emerging Israel marked by a Jewish spirituality in a religiously diverse society will bind it more firmly with Jews in the diaspora. The sense of shared peoplehood crossing national boundaries will not only invigorate Jewish life everywhere, but will also help ensure the survival of the Jewish people. Survival should not be the ultimate goal of the Jewish people, but a vibrant Judaism will help them fulfill their special mission in God’s world. This will ensure the continuation of the long historic journey of the Jewish people.